Holden’s Rants – Sports meet Hollywood

With the first preseason game held this past weekend, I think it’s time for my first annual NFL preview.  I’m going to review all of the teams division by division, starting with the AFC South since that’s where my hometown team resides.  So if you are looking for another see-thru dress from Jessica Simpson or another Tara Reid nip-slip, you’ll have to wait a couple days but, if you need a little football fix, here you go.

AFC South Review (Ranked by predicted record)

1.  Indianapolis Colts – (Prediction: 12-4) – Indianapolis is still the cream of the crop of the AFC’s southern division.  Having finished 14-2 last season and having won the division the past 3 years, the Colts have had a stranglehold on the division crown, but with the loss of star running back Edgerrin James and defensive standouts David Thorton and Larry Tripplett, the Colts might fall back to the pack some this year.  But anytime you can line up all-world QB Peyton Manning with Pro-Bowl WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne you will always have one of the most explosive offenses in the league.  One area they did improve upon was special teams.  They added one of the most clutch players in NFL history, kicker Adam Vinatieri, and by doing so weakened one of their closest rivals, the New England Patriots.  One of the biggest questions coming into camp is competition for Edgerrin James vacated starting RB spot.  Former 1,000 yard rusher Dominic Rhodes seems to be the early leader, but injuries and inconsistency have derailed him in the past.  Pushing him hard is LSU rookie Joseph Addai who has shown an excellent work ethic and polished blocking skills early in camp.  This is the key position battle for fantasy footballers to watch because the Colts, as always, will put a ton of points up on the scoreboard.  My bet is Rhodes starts the season, but Addai takes over after their bye week in week 7 against the Redskins at home.  Even with all of the personnel changes, the Colts should still cruise to their 4th straight division title and a bye in the 1st round of the playoffs.

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars – (Prediction: 9-7) – Jacksonville finished a close second to the Colts last year with a record of 12-4 but will have a significant drop-off this year and most likely miss the playoffs.  Jacksonville benefited from an easy schedule last year that ended with 4 out of 5 games against cellar-dwellers Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston, and Tennessee.  Jacksonville also had a knack for staying in and winning close games last year, winning 8 games by 7 points or less.  That isn’t much room for error in a division where the bottom teams have made significant strides to be more competitive.  This year, their schedule is brutal, starting with Pittsburgh, Dallas, Indianapolis and Washington.  The Jags will be lucky to start 2-2 but 1-3 is much more likely and that would be a difficult hole to climb out of so early in the season.  Some reasons for hope for Jacksonville fans are the reported health of RB “Fragile” Freddy Taylor who reported to camp in great shape and 10 lbs under his weight from last year , but he promptly tweaked his hamstring and sat out of practice.  The big question mark for the Jaguar offense this season is at receiver.  With the retirement of All-Pro Jimmy Smith, the Jags are left with youngsters Matt Jones, Ernest Willford and Reggie Williams to fight for the #1 spot.  The problem is though, they are all #3 receivers, not #1’s, so the offense could struggle.  But as always, their young, hard-hitting defense will keep them in games and keep the games close. 

3.  Houston Texans – (Prediction: 6-10) – The Texans are coming off their worst season in franchise history, finishing 2-14 and getting the first pick in the NFL draft.  The Texans then departed from conventional logic and picked DE Mario Williams with the first pick, passing up the human highlight reel, Reggie Bush and hometown hero Vince Young.  New coach Gary Kubiak and GM Rick Smith are both counting on Williams’ impact on a defense that ranked near or at the bottom of the league in almost every category last year.  They are also hoping to get help from the additions of free agents Anthony Weaver and ND Kalu as well as from 2nd round pick DeMeco Ryans.  They also bolstered their beleaguered offensive line that gave up 68 sacks last season with the additions of free agent Mike Flanagan and 3rd round picks Eric Winston and Charles Spencer.  By passing up on Young and resigning David Carr to a 3-year extension, we will see if former NFL QB Gary Kubiak can bring some confidence and swagger to Carr who hasn’t done much in his NFL career besides being a well paid tackling dummy.  Will Kubiak’s zone run blocking along with the addition of WR Eric Moulds make this a competitive team?  I think it will and I expect a big season from David Carr and from WR Andre Johnson who will return to Pro Bowl form with a legitimate threat on the other side.  The big question in my mind is at RB where starter Domanick Davis continues to get nicked up and has not practiced yet this preseason.  If the Texans can run-block like the Broncos, whose system they are implementing this season, their offense should continue to click on all cylinders, and I think they will definitely surprise some teams this year.

4.  Tennessee Titans – (Prediction: 4-12) – After a disappointing season last year, in which they finished 4-12 and received the 3rd pick in the NFL draft, the Titans are looking to rebound this year and once again become one of the top teams in the AFC.  However, the problem is that they did next to nothing in the off-season to help this.  Yes, they did draft star QB Vince Young and a RB with a twinkie problem in LenDale White, but at the end of last season, those weren’t their ‘need’ positions.  They ended the year last year with RBs Chris Brown and Travis Henry and QB Steve McNair who, although is injury prone, is only 2 years removed from being the MVP of the league.  The Titans would have been better served working to improve a defense who gave up the 3rd most points in the league instead of drafting flashy additions to their offense.  that might fill the seats, but it won’t fill the trophy case.  And to top it off, the Titans released / traded McNair to the Ravens this past June.  This is where you seriously start to question who is running this team.  It seems Bud Adams, in his attempts to stick it to his former home of Houston, has forgotten the steps he took with the Oilers to make Steve McNair the All-Pro he was: he gave him a good mentor and let him sit on the bench and learn.  Vince Young could have used that same philosophy and learned from a great QB with a similar style in McNair and would have been much better off.  But in a push to have Young starting by the time Tennessee plays Houston in December he’s being pushed into the starting role much too early and this will sink their season.  I don’t care how good a QB is in college there is a learning curve in the pros and it will take Young a while to adjust to the complexity and speed at the pro level.  The truly bad part of the whole situation is that the decision to rush Young will not only cost them their season but will most likely cost one of the best coaches in the game, Jeff Fisher, his job.  Well done Bud, well done.

HC